Different Ways to View All-Cause Mortality Post-COVID Vaccines
How can we know the impact of the COVID vaccines on deaths? More comprehensive data that is pertinent to this question has been revealed in 2024 than at any time since the release of the vaccines.
Let’s examine the work of researchers who looked back at peak COVID vaccine uptake and governments’ mortality data throughout the world, as we seek to understand association between the two.
Oxford University’s (formerly Johns Hopkins University’s) Our World in Data estimates that roughly 70.6% of the global population has received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine, as of August 7, 2024. [1]
The above percentage is different than that in the following New York Times screenshot of March 13, 2023. [2] The New York Times cited Our World in Data as its source.
If both pages are correct, if the percentage of the world’s population with at least one COVID vaccine dose fell by 1.7% (= 72.3% - 70.6%) in the 17 months from March 2023 to August 2024, then 0.1% of the earth’s population died in each of those months, if they were all vaccinated, which we know is impossible, because unvaccinated people are mortal also. One must also account for the newborns who arrived in that interval, who may not be as COVID-vaccinated as their elders. Also, earth’s population is widely considered to have grown in that time, but contrarians point to indicators that the total earth’s population may have peaked prior to 2023, perhaps as early as 2020, and then began to decline. [3] One must also take into account differences in the total vaccinated population, as well as total earth’s population, assumed by Our World In Data and The New York Times respectively in August 2024, which is 5.71 billion people dosed at least once, of 8.09 billion people total [4] (OWID), and in March 2023, 5.55 billion people dosed at least once, of 7.68 billion people total (NYT citing OWID), which data are from the above-cited pages. The New York Times attributes its data to Our World in Data, and therefore discrepancies in the above population counts and percentages are likely due to differences in dates of tallying and publication.
Now Our World in Data also says that there are typically about 60 million deaths worldwide every year, not including the anomalous years 2020 through 2022, and that there are 8.09 billion people on the planet. [5] Dividing the first of those numbers by the second, we get 0.74% of the population typically dies each year, which is 0.062% per month.
So then comparing the last two paragraphs, if deaths per month worldwide are higher in March 2023 to August 2024, that is increased by 0.1% / 0.062%, then that is a 61.3% increase in deaths during that time, which is enormous.
That time period, March 2023 to August 2024, falls well after COVID disease attributed mortality peaks in 2020 through 2022. So a 61.3% increase in the death rate cannot be blamed on COVID infections. Some of the following factors may increase or decrease that percentage, although they may be hard to ascertain, given the sporadic or deficient vital statistics reporting of countries around the world.
Five million COVID vaccine doses per day were still being given in the last quarter of 2022. By the last quarter of 2023, that number was less than one-half million per day, and at this writing in August 2024, is less than 1,500 doses per day worldwide, according to Our World in Data. [6] Declining demand for COVID vaccines for all ages, and possibly rare uptake (with sketchy reporting) also for those born between 2022 and 2024, as well as typical and any atypical mortality in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are expected to contribute to future fluctuations in reported percentage of the population vaccinated during the COVID years generally, and more specifically the COVID vaccine impact years, which may include most of the 2020-2030 decade. All of the above-mentioned factors can cause fluctuations in the reported global vaccination uptake rate and mortality rate, and warrant continued attention.
The United States, considered separately, also seems to have lost an even larger percentage of COVID-vaccinated people, as I discuss here:
Looking For 45 Million Missing People
A Rasmussen poll this past week of 1,250 U.S. adults, everyone 18 years of age and older, shows that only 67% of living American adults believe that they had any COVID vaccine at all. The paywalled article and data are here: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/covid_19/nearly_1_in_5_say_someone_they_know_died_from_covid_19_vaccine
The 61% increase in global mortality from March 2023 to August 2024 that I discussed above should alert us to waste no time in finding out where and how those deaths are occurring. If the increase in deaths are attributable to any particular causes, then people everywhere should benefit from a summary of the information now available.
I think no one has done a more thorough investigation of this question of how much the COVID vaccines contribute to all-cause mortality than Denis Rancourt, PhD. Due in part to rather volatile political events around the world at the time, the Rancourt team’s opus of a few weeks ago on the subject of COVID-vaccine associated all-cause mortality throughout the world did not get nearly as much attention as it deserved. I summarized that work here:
People in 110 Countries Were Killed by COVID Vaccines
Denis Rancourt, PhD and colleagues Hickey and Linard have just released a 521-page opus on excess all-cause mortality throughout the world, 2020 through 2023. (The reader may be aware that what is termed ”excess mortality” is the difference between observed and expected numbers of deaths in a given country over a year.) The authors examine governments’…
Dose-dependent effect on mortality in Germany
A different study, of the sixteen federal states of Germany, found a correlation between vaccination and excess deaths both temporally and geographically. Federal states with the highest vaccination uptake had the highest all-cause mortality, and that occurred close in time to peak vaccine uptake. In the authors’ words, “the more vaccinations were administered in a federal state, the greater the increase in excess mortality. This correlational finding is in line with previous correlational findings in the temporal domain, showing that excess mortality was highest during the months with a high number of vaccinations.” [7] Worse, the association of the COVID vaccination rate with increases in excess mortality become stronger over time, as seen in the author’s graph here:
Germany was one of the most heavily vaccinated countries. The authors note that “ . . . in the [German] federal states with the highest vaccination rates over 97% of the population over 60 years of age were at least fully vaccinated . . .” [8]
The same authors had previously found that the number of stillbirths in Germany had stayed stable in 2019 and 2020, then took a sudden turn upward in the year of widespread deployment of COVID vaccines, 2021. That rate increased by 9.4% in the second quarter of 2021 and by 19.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021. By the end of that fourth quarter an increase in stillbirths of four standard deviations was observed. [9] I had previously written about plummeting fertility / live births in heavily vaccinated countries.
Data from the U.S. nursing home residents also showed 28% higher deaths for those who were boosted (3 or more shots) than those who had received only two vaccine doses. [10]
Dose-dependent effect also found in the U.S.
An earlier literature review of adverse effects of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines in the U.S. also found a 1.5 to 1 ratio of Moderna to Pfizer injury. [11] Across all ages, the VAERS database is consistent with the all-ages data from the Czech Republic, Moderna causes 30% more deaths than Pfizer per dose. [12]
Because this is such a strong signal, the Moderna vaccines should be removed from all markets immediately. However, the Pfizer vaccines, as I have shown throughout my book Neither Safe Nor Effective, are nowhere near safe enough for use.
Mean time lost – By how much do the COVID vaccines shorten lifespan?
Let’s now ask what percentage of the human lifespan are the COVID vaccines expected to shorten? Italian researchers have addressed that question. Alessandria, et al, were able to compare lifespan of vaccinated versus unvaccinated cohorts over a large population, by using a dataset, earlier analyzed by Rosso, et al, [13] from the Italian National Healthcare System, comprised of all residents of the province of Pescara aged 10 years and older, as of January 1, 2021. [14] That was 290,727 residents, average age of 50 years old. The number of doses of COVID vaccinations in this population were counted throughout all of 2021 and 2022. The cohorts were divided into groups that each received zero, one, two or more COVID vaccine doses within those two years. The authors had to correct for a time bias regarding early or late vaccination within that two-year period, and therefore looked at person-days, to eliminate that bias.
Unlike the earlier Rosso study that examined this same population with regard to deaths attributed to COVID-19, the Alessandria study found that diagnoses and attributed causes of deaths during the COVID era were unreliable, and so the latter study considered all-cause mortality after COVID vaccination.
Alessandria et al found that people receiving one or two vaccine doses had a significantly higher risk of all-cause death than the unvaccinated, with hazard ratios of 1.40 for one vaccine dose, and 1.36 for two vaccine doses. [15]
Restricted Mean Time Lost ratio for the double-vaccinated over unvaccinated is 1.37 (CI95 = 1.27 to 1.48) in Table 4. [16] This is not a 37% loss of total life expectancy for the vaccinated, but rather a 37% loss of comparable time across the two groups within the two years examined. Death was nearly twice as likely to occur in the double-vaccinated group than the unvaccinated group (hazard ratio = 1.98) during the two-year time period. In the authors’ words, “This means that the subjects vaccinated with two doses lost 37% of life expectancy compared to the unvaccinated during the follow-up period considered.” The authors estimated that given the average lifespan of the province’s residents, that the double-vaccinated would lose a total average of 3.6 months of life expectancy. [17]
Alessandria et al acknowledged some confounders. They discuss a “harvesting” effect of toxic vaccines, in which the weakest subjects would more likely die after their first vaccine, whereas a stronger person might only succumb after a later vaccine. In this way, the devastation of the first vaccine can appear to exceed that of subsequent doses. [18]
Mis-categorizing the recently vaccinated as “unvaccinated”
From what I have seen, the most impactful confounder of the mortality data is the following, which was the case throughout the entire western world: Those vaccinated less than 14 days (sometimes 7 days, sometimes 21 days) earlier were called “unvaccinated.” This mis-categorization resulted in failure to acknowledge the large mortality peak in the first few days following vaccination, which I discuss in my book Neither Safe Nor Effective, as all gets swept falsely under the “unvaccinated” category rather than a more accurate “recently vaccinated” category.
The problem is further compounded by not only labeling the single-vaccinated as unvaccinated, but also mis-labelling the double-vaccinated as single-vaccinated, etc. This rampant obfuscation of vaccine status, and conflating the recently vaccinated with unvaccinated people [19] is of course unconscionable given the urgent need to understand exactly how dangerous the COVID vaccines are.
A review of the literature by Neil, et al. regarding mis-categorization of COVID vaccinees revealed that 100% of the 38 studies on the topic found that the practice of mis-categorization was ubiquitous throughout the world, typically during the first 14 days following vaccination, between 7 to 21 days. [20] This creates a “case-counting window bias,” in which deaths among the fully-vaccinated are not counted until the arbitrarily assigned 1, 2 or 3 weeks has passed. [21] As a result of such mis-classification in England by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), deaths among the recently vaccinated were attributed to the unvaccinated, and the population proportion of the unvaccinated was uncountable. [22]
In the Alessandria study discussed above, the examined population was likewise affected by this mis-labelling. The Italian Superior Institute of Health wrote “The Italian Superior Institute of Health, both in the scientific publications and in its reports published in the last two years, to evaluate the effectiveness of anti-COVID-19 vaccines, considers people who are diagnosed in the first 14 days after administration of the first dose, as ‘not vaccinated.’” [23]
The gross misrepresentation of labelling the recently vaccinated as unvaccinated may be seen in the following graph of US deaths in days following COVID vaccination, showing that the vast majority of deaths occur well before the 14th day following vaccination. [24]
Then there is the record-level data from the Czech Republic, an enormous gold standard data set, about which I will write soon.
[1] Our World In Data. Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, as of August 7, 2024. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[2] J Holder. Tracking coronavirus vaccinations around the world. Mar 13 2023. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
[3] C Huber. Has population growth reversed? Feb 26 2023. The Defeat of COVID. https://colleenhuber.substack.com/p/has-population-growth-reversed
[4] Our World in Data. Population, 1950 to 2023. Updated through Aug 7 2024. https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth
[5] Our World In Data. How many people die, and how many are born each year? Updated through Aug 7 2024. https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths
[6] Our World In Data. Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, as of August 7, 2024. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
[7] C Kuhbandner, M Reitzner. Different increases in excess mortality in the German federal states during the COVID-19 pandemic. February 2024. ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378124684_Differential_Increases_in_Excess_Mortality_in_the_German_Federal_States_During_the_COVID-19_Pandemic
[8] Ibid Kuhbandner. p. 19.
[9] C Kuhbandner, M Reitzner. Estimation of excess mortality in Germany during 2020-2022. May 23 2023. Cureus. https://www.cureus.com/articles/149410-estimation-of-excess-mortality-in-germany-during-2020-2022#!/
[10] K McConeghy, B Bardenheier, et al. Infections, hospitalizations and deaths among US nursing home residents with vs without a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster. Dec 7 2022. JAMA. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2799266
[11] J Fraiman, J Erviti, et al. Serious adverse evens of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adults. Sep 22 2022. Vaccine. 40 (40). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9428332/
[12] S. Kirsch. VAERS data shows Moderna causes 30% more deaths per dose than Pfizer. Jul 15 2024.
[13] A Rosso, M Flacco, et al. COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness in the general population of an Italian province: Two years of follow-up. July 10 2023. Vaccines. https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/8/1325
[14] M Alessandria, G Malatesta, et al. A critical analysis of all-cause deaths during COVID-19 vaccination in an Italian province. May 30 2024. Microorganisms. 12:1343. https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2607/12/7/1343
[15] Ibid Alessandria 2024. p. 2.
[16] Ibid Alessandria 2024. p. 7.
[17] Ibid Alessandria 2024. p. 10.
[18] Ibid Alessandria 2024. p. 11.
[19] C Bermingham, V Nafilyan, et al. Estimating the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death: a cohort study based on the 2021 Census, England. Jun 7 2023. medRxiv preprint. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2023/06/07/2023.06.06.23290982.full.pdf
[20] M Neil, N Fenton, et al. The extent and impact of vaccine status miscategorisation on COVID-19 vaccine efficacy studies. Mar 25 2024. medRxiv preprint. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.03.09.24304015v2
[21] K Fung, M Jones, et al. Sources of bias in observational studies of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. 2024. J Eval Clin Pract. 30: 30-36.
[22] N Fenton, M Neil, et al. What the ONS mortality COVID-19 surveillance data can tell us about vaccine safety and efficacy. Nov 2022. Research Gate preprint. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/365202828_What_the_ONS_Mortality_Covid-19_Surveillance_Data_can_tell_us_about_Vaccine_Safety_and_Efficacy
[23] G Quinn, M Connolly, et al. Influence of seasonality and public health interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic in northern Europe. Nov 16 2023. J Clin Med. 13 (2). 334. https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/13/2/334
[24] J Hickey, D Rancourt. Nature of the toxicity of the COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S.A. Feb 9 2022. Correlation. https://correlation-canada.org/VAERS-toxicity-of-COVID19-vaccines/
Thank you, Dr. Huber. My brother, who had just turned 68, died 1/31/2023 of ‘turbo cancer’, after getting two Covid19 jabs in late 2021. I’m aware that I can’t prove this. However, I know he was killed by those evil, toxic injections. My hunch is that he probably had some slow growing cancer in his body, and he otherwise would have lived about another 10 years. Please note that he was a slim, healthy, active man until shortly before his death. As far as I’m concerned, he was murdered.
My father passed away in April at the age of 93. He had a stroke 2 years ago, despite no family history of stroke, and being on anti-coagulants. He pressured me to take the jabs. He was up to date.
His grandson, my nephew, recently developed atrial fibrillation, which he never had before. He and his mother, my sister, have gotten COVID numerous times subsequent to their repeated jabs. My wife and I never had the jabs or COVID. Amazing.
My sister's take on them getting COVID? "Thank goodness we had our shots. Otherwise it would have been much worse." I couldn't believe they were actually saying these words I had read online.
She pressured me to take the jabs. I told her I had published more than one peer-reviewed paper on COVID epidemiology. Zero interest. Do whatever the screen says, hate Trump, great life huh? Two parents and a son sacrificed to malpractice, but worse, sacrificed to a stubborn refusal to think, and hatred of people who dare to think for themselves.
Good Shabbos.